It is a fair assessment to state that England have not delivered at a World Cup in a very long time. Since reaching the Semi Finals in Italy in 1990, England have won just eight games at the World Cup Finals. To put that into perspective, Germany have won 28 games in the same time span. In the last two World Cups, England have scored a combined total of five goals. Germany have hit 34.

Because of England’s record however, it becomes difficult to assess the team objectively. The British media – now in a phase of pessimism over England – is still too emotional to give a fair judgement of the 2018 team’s chances.

England tick all the boxes needed before a major tournament

If you look at the England team as a neutral should, there is much to like. Credible draws with Brazil and Germany in their last two games. A raft of young players reaching the peak of their careers, many of whom are starting for some of the best sides in club football. A manager who has been through the national team youth set-up with many of the players. A candidate for the world’s best striker – Harry Kane.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Those are all good pointers towards having a good campaign. So why are England available to win the World Cup at odds nearly double that of, say, Argentina? A team that truly struggled to qualify for the Finals in Russia. Or around triple the odds of France? A side that lacks experience, leadership and is guilty of a crime England often committed in the past – shoehorning ‘stars’ into the side at the expense of coherent tactics.

Are England’s betting odds a fair assessment of their chances?

The current World Cup odds from Sportingbet are: Germany 9/2, Brazil 5/1, France 6/1, Spain 7/1, Argentina, 9/1 and Belgium 12/1. England are available at 17/1. To many neutrals, England’s price would look like a bargain, especially when you can bet on England with a 2018 World Cup free bet.

There is no suggestion to say that England have suddenly transformed into ‘world beaters’ overnight. They still have several flaws which need to be addressed. A lethargic style of play can creep in at times. They sometimes seem bereft of attacking ideas, despite the options at their disposal. They also need to settle on a first-choice goalkeeper soon.

Man City and Tottenham players key for Southgate

But if Southgate can find some balance between a front four of Kane, Sterling, Alli and, perhaps, Adam Lallana, then England will have one of the most dynamic attacks at the Finals. They also have superb options to come off the bench. Consider the likes of Jamie Vardy or Marcus Rashford running at tired defences in the latter stages of games.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

The point of this is not to suggest that England will definitely win the World Cup. But merely to state that the perception of their chances is often skewed by looking through the lens of the media who herald past failure as something that defines a team’s future. Their odds should be a little shorter, perhaps closer to that of Belgium who have also not delivered in major tournaments in the last few decades.

The thing is, dampened expectation could actually suit Gareth Southgate and his team. Reaching the quarter-finals, where they would likely meet Brazil or Germany, would be seen as a decent tournament. Getting any further would be a surprise for England fans. But not as much of a shock to neutrals.